Re: What does it take to vision the future? #vision

Robert Swanwick

While I haven't looked at Blockbuster's corporate numbers; as a customer, I think they have done a good job progressing their model.

Not only can I get movies delivered to my door in a matter of 2 days on a rotating basis (just like Netflix), but I can also return my mailed movies at the store and get another one to watch immediately while I am waiting those 2 days (as part of the monthly subscription).

The most successful knowledge/information based businesses are likely going to be the ones that can integrate with the way we operate across multiple media/touchpoints. Blockbuster needs to stay on top of the move to direct download, but there is plenty of time before that hits the mainstream.


--- In, "Tom" <tman9999@...> wrote:

This is really a classic situation for applying scenario planning. By using scenario planning Blockbuster could have taken a look at critical data points and trends five or ten years ago, as well as start to identify key unknowns. From this information they could have developed three or four alternative stories about the future, one of which would have surely covered much of what is happening today. From there it would have been a matter of identifying early signals that would tell which story was in fact coming about; and they also would have done planning around how they would respond to each of the stories so they would be ready regardless of which one eventuated.

Royal Dutch Shell pioneered this approach in the 60s and 70s, and all the oil companies eventually followed suit after seeing how effective it was in helping Shell deal with the 74 oil embargo. I still am surprised by how few companies use it in a disciplined, rigorous fashion as it is quite effective in improving responsiveness.

--- In, "jimpmp2000" <jlee@> wrote:

The following post regarding the future of Blockbuster is exactly the
kind of phenomenon I was interested in during a Midwest KM meeting I
attended a few months ago. At that gathering, we discussed a particular
area of interest of mine. That is, what knowledge does it take to avoid
becoming the next Oldsmobile, Montgomery-Ward, or Howard Johnson's.\;

One day you're on top of the world, and the next, you're
tomorrow's bankruptcy news. What knowledge, if any, could have
prevented this situation?

I don't think it's simply disruptive technologies, although that
certainly must have been the case with Blockbuster's current
difficulties. Even then, who (if any) were the ones who envisioned a
monetized YouTube that might make Blockbuster obsolete?

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