Re: Amazon Ratings - One Thumb Down #ratings #prediction-markets

David Snowden <snowded@...>

I agree that prediction markets are useful, but (i) we do not know yet what will happen when people try to game them and (ii) as the results are visibile then they will change the predictions.

My gut feel is that we should get rid of the"prediction" word for a bit and talk instead about "prevention" and "enablement"

Dave Snowden
Founder, The Cynefin Centre

On 21 Jan 2006, at 10:18, John Maloney wrote:

Dave --

Yep, all great points here.

One model abstraction for exploiting complexity, emergence, social
networks and self-organizing systems are prediction and knowledge

'Gaming the system' has been the traditional nemesis of enterprise
ranking/rating/reward systems since time immemorial.

Today, enterprise knowledge markets are transforming these 'natural'
behaviors into an essential method for the creation, conversion,
transfer and applied use of knowledge.

I also share grave concerns about ranking/rating of
documents/artifacts in the enterprise repository. It doesn't work
and never will for the reasons mentioned and about a half dozen

Again, it is typical for enterprise managers to focus on documents,
control, management, ranking (library science) versus leading the
*practice* of how knowledge is really created, applied, used.

Artifact/document rating & rating may give a warm 'in control'
feeling, and are good for corporate librarians, but it doesn't
create any business advantage or advance enterprise knowledge. It is
important to the corporate mission like bookkeeping is important.

There is too little time to go into details on knowledge markets, so
I will be lazy and just share the press release and links. These
ongoing and forthcoming market conversations are highly germane to
this important thread.

Note: this event was scheduled for next week, but
people/participants from the World Economic Forum in Davos asked to
postpone until after the WEF. They are running some knowledge
markets at WEF on world events, energy prices, climate, H5N1 Virus
and so on, and wish to conduct conversations at the Summit.

Prediction Markets Summit - February 3, 2006 - New York City 
Download this press release as an Adobe PDF document here:

Note. There are scant few seats left for this summit.

Colabria® and CommerceNet announce Google, Yahoo!, MIT Sloan School,
NewsFutures, Corning, InTrade and HedgeStreet to join the Prediction
Markets Summit February, 3rd, 2006 in New York City.

San Francisco, CA (PRWEB) January 19, 2006 -- Colabria® -- the
leading worldwide action/research network of the knowledge economy -
announces NewsFutures, InTrade and HedgeStreet. will join Google,
Yahoo!, CommerceNet and others for the Prediction Markets Summit,
February 3rd, 2006 in New York, New York USA.

"Prediction markets are brutally honest and uncannily accurate." —
Geoffrey Colvin - Value Driven – Fortune Magazine.

Thomas W. Malone, Professor of Management, MIT Sloan School, founder
MIT Center for Coordination Science, Author, "The Future of Work" is
a keynote speaker. Thomas will discuss how Intel uses prediction
markets for manufacturing capacity planning.

James Surowiecki, author of "The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are
Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business,
Economies, Societies and Nations" is also an event keynote speaker.

Emile Servan-Schreiber, CEO of prediction market leader NewsFutures,
will describe how Corning uses enterprise prediction markets to
forecast demand for liquid crystal displays.

Charles Polk, CEO, Common Knowledge Markets, will lead a
conversation on Pandemic Flu Prediction Market (PFPF) and the H5N1
Virus Outbreak.

Knowledge markets are becoming commonplace in the smartest firms.
Top firms using prediction markets for KM are Google, Yahoo!,
Microsoft, Eli Lilly, Abbott Laboratories, HP, Intel and Siemens.

This event is sponsored by participants and CommerceNet, NewsFutures,
InTrade and HedgeStreet

Prediction market pioneer Yahoo! Research will sponsor a Pre-Summit
Reception, February 2nd, 2006 at their offices in Manhattan (for
registered participants only).

Summit sessions are practical and conversational. All are welcome.
Secure, pre-registration online required.



--- In sikmleaders@..., David Snowden wrote:
> Sorry not to have been active, or on the calls - too much travel
> However this is a topic of considerable interest to us, and a part
> our own software development and method research.


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