Re: Amazon Ratings - One Thumb Down #ratings #prediction-markets
J Maloney \(jheuristic\) <jtmalone@...>
Hi Dave --
Brief response in caps.
I agree that prediction markets are useful,
GOOD.
but (i) we do not know yet what will happen when people try to game
THEY ARE INTENDED TO BE 'GAMED' AGGRESSIVELY. THAT IS THE WHOLE POINT.
them and (ii) as the results are visible then they will change the
predictions.
YES, ABSOLUTELY. MARKETS MUST BE TRANSPARENT TO BE EFFECTIVE. THE CHANGES
DETERMINE THE PRICES.
LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS FOR AN IDEA:
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
My gut feel is that we should get rid of the"prediction" word for a bit and
talk instead about "prevention" and "enablement"
YEAH, MAKES SENSE. MARKETS ARE VERY USEFUL, ESSENTIAL REALLY, TO RISK
MANAGEMENT (HEDGING).
More to the story...
"Thirty years ago, when Charles Schwab bucked Wall Street and founded the
first ever discount brokerage, people were skeptical. It couldn't be done,
they claimed. Wall Street was governed by the large financial giants which
charged enormous fees, catered to the very rich or the institutional
investors of the world, and largely paid lip service to the small investor.
Despite being blackballed by Wall Street, Schwab changed all that, bringing
the financial markets to the masses, reducing commissions to affordable
levels such that the nation's significant middle class could invest for
their own futures in the same way institutions had done for years. It was a
watershed moment." {hedgestreet] The rest, as they say, is history.
"Chuck" now has the biggest compound in Pebble Beach!
It is roughly the same thing today. Only highly 'sophisticated' brokers and
bankers trade derivatives, about 3% of very, high net worth investors and
giant institutions. It make up a HUGE market, some say bigger than the stock
market. "Retail hedge markets are coming. See: HedgeStreet's site
www.hedgestreet.com enables members to trade small, inexpensive,
easy-to-understand "event derivative" contracts (called HedgeletsR) in
markets never before accessible to individual traders." {hedgestreet]
Cheers,
John
John Maloney
T: 415.902.9676
IM/Skype: jheuristic
ID: http://public.2idi.com/=john.maloney
Prediction Markets: http://www.kmcluster.com/nyc/PM/PM.htm
KM Blogs: http://kmblogs.com/
Brief response in caps.
I agree that prediction markets are useful,
GOOD.
but (i) we do not know yet what will happen when people try to game
THEY ARE INTENDED TO BE 'GAMED' AGGRESSIVELY. THAT IS THE WHOLE POINT.
them and (ii) as the results are visible then they will change the
predictions.
YES, ABSOLUTELY. MARKETS MUST BE TRANSPARENT TO BE EFFECTIVE. THE CHANGES
DETERMINE THE PRICES.
LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS FOR AN IDEA:
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
My gut feel is that we should get rid of the"prediction" word for a bit and
talk instead about "prevention" and "enablement"
YEAH, MAKES SENSE. MARKETS ARE VERY USEFUL, ESSENTIAL REALLY, TO RISK
MANAGEMENT (HEDGING).
More to the story...
"Thirty years ago, when Charles Schwab bucked Wall Street and founded the
first ever discount brokerage, people were skeptical. It couldn't be done,
they claimed. Wall Street was governed by the large financial giants which
charged enormous fees, catered to the very rich or the institutional
investors of the world, and largely paid lip service to the small investor.
Despite being blackballed by Wall Street, Schwab changed all that, bringing
the financial markets to the masses, reducing commissions to affordable
levels such that the nation's significant middle class could invest for
their own futures in the same way institutions had done for years. It was a
watershed moment." {hedgestreet] The rest, as they say, is history.
"Chuck" now has the biggest compound in Pebble Beach!
It is roughly the same thing today. Only highly 'sophisticated' brokers and
bankers trade derivatives, about 3% of very, high net worth investors and
giant institutions. It make up a HUGE market, some say bigger than the stock
market. "Retail hedge markets are coming. See: HedgeStreet's site
www.hedgestreet.com enables members to trade small, inexpensive,
easy-to-understand "event derivative" contracts (called HedgeletsR) in
markets never before accessible to individual traders." {hedgestreet]
Cheers,
John
John Maloney
T: 415.902.9676
IM/Skype: jheuristic
ID: http://public.2idi.com/=john.maloney
Prediction Markets: http://www.kmcluster.com/nyc/PM/PM.htm
KM Blogs: http://kmblogs.com/