1. #poll
  2. Prediction: Ratio of Active Editors to Readers of Wikipedia Should Approach Zero

Prediction: Ratio of Active Editors to Readers of Wikipedia Should Approach Zero #wikis

Bruce Karney <bkarney@...>
 

Three conditions should drive continued growth in Wikipedia (WP)
readers in the next few years:

1) WP becomes more and more widely known
2) WP becomes more comprehensive in subject coverage
3) WP becomes more authoritative

On the other hand, as time goes by and most articles become more
complete and better written, there will be less need to edit
articles -- and fewer people with the expertise to input new insights
that are true improvements. I view this as signalling the maturation
of WP.

Whatever the initial ratio of active editors to readers was during
the early months of WP's life, I predict that the ratio should
decrease monotonically over the life of WP.

Perhaps someone can dig into the stats database to see if this
hypothesis is correct.

Cheers,
Bruce Karney
Gent, Andrew <andrew.gent@...>
 

Hi Bruce,
 
>>as time goes by and most articles become more complete and better written, there will be less need to edit articles -- and fewer people with the expertise to input new insights that are true improvements
 
Actually, I would have thought the same thing. thinking of Wikipedia as as online equivalent of the encyclopedias we are used to from the past. And this might be true for definitional or historical entries. However, I have discovered (actually, my children have shown me) that there are a significant number of Wikipedia entries that are occurring in what might be called "real time". These entries change constantly, because the topic is still evolving -- something that was never possible with the old printed reference books. This came up because my sons are interested in comic books and Japanese manga -- cartoons that are published serially. The Wikipedia entries are incredibly thorough, down to synopses for each issue, updated on a weekly or monthly basis as necssary. Similarly for popular figures in sports, entertainment, or politics -- their entries are constantly being updated with their latest achievements (or mishaps).
 
I can't say how many entries fall into this category, but it is certainly a new element for which the wiki is extremely well suited.
 
But you are right -- it would be interesting to see if there are statistics (similar to the reader/contributor ratio) of static/dynamic entries.
 
--Andrew
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